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An Invasion of Odessa Would Be Catastrophic — for Russia
It’s no secret that Putin would love to have Odessa. It would give him a historical gem and means of landlocking Ukraine.
I’ll put it in writing right now: He doesn’t have a snowball's chance in hell.
Yes, an invasion could cause terrible human suffering. But Russia is in for another rude awakening.
How Odessa is planning for Putin’s invasion
If your city is going to be invaded via sea, there’s a series of defensive strategies you can implement.
Attackers-via-water will be in an exposed position on primarily flat terrain. Your defenders’ goal is always to slow their advance while remaining concealed.
You create dividing lines of advance on the beach so soldiers have to funnel in separate groups, tripping over each other while allowing defenders to focus fire.
There are already landmines all over Odessa beaches. Blockades and obstacles litter every vector of advance.
A successful amphibious invasion would typically need a 3:1 person advantage — and Russia doesn’t have that kind of manpower, morale, or the transport vehicles to unload them in a rapid fashion.
Not even close.
Odessa is a massive city with more than a million people, many of whom are now embittered and eager to test new weapons. Logistics lines from the west have been fully functional and Odessa has had more than a month to prepare.
Across the city, volunteers have worked to build various barricades. They’ll contest any attempt by Russian vehicles to get through Odessa.
Even worse for Russia, dozens of ocean-facing artillery are positioned, fortified, and properly masked.
If I were a Russian General, I would do everything possible to avoid this invasion.